Tech and Blogging Predictions for 2007
Technorati tags: mypredictions2007
I got tagged by the 2007 Predictions meme by Software Abstractions (and wp.com), so here are my completely unresearched predictions. I did sacrifice a chicken, however. If any of them have *already* happened — well, I’m just that good. I’m not tagging anyone with the meme, but if this inspires you to write something then please link back.
(photo by jurvetson)
Predictions about My Website
- I’ll do two CSS redesigns in 2007. They’ll both make the site look worse than it ever has before.
- I’ll almost quit blogging a couple of times, but never stop for more than 10 days.
- At some point I will disable comments because I am sick and tired of dealing with spam, but I’ll eventually reinstate them.
- I’ll start a web comic that no one else “gets”. It will become hugely popular. People will ask me to quit blogging and focus my attention on the comic. Other people will ask me to quit the comic and focus my attention on blogging. There will be huge battles in the comments. This will appease the dark side of the force and my ego.
- I’ll release a WordPress Theme that I’ve never used myself — purely for site promotion.
- //engtech will be featured on Cute Overload. This will be remembered as the moment when my site jumped the shark.
- I will form a blog network of sites that didn’t make it into 9 Rules. This will last for approximately three weeks before people realize it was a massive link bait campaign.
- I will fake a Post Secret postcard to advertise my blog. It becomes a huge controversy. People say “it was only a matter of time” after the entire Cute Overload thing.
- I’ll end 2007 in the Technorati top 100, but there will be insinuations that I only got to that spot because of mob connections. Unknown to readers, getting there have left me single, penniless, jobless and homeless — but at least I’ll have an original point of view as I blog from the public library.
(photo by pankajsharma)
Tech Predictions – Web 2.1
- More people will abandon traditional media for aggregators and non-traditional sources. Traditional media companies that “get it” will respond by buying aggregators. Some traditional media companies will try to develop aggregators of their own. The blogosphere will hopelessly mock them.
- My dad will continue trying to be his own news aggregator by emailing articles to everyone he knows. I wish I was retired too.
- Google Video will stagnate beside YouTube. People will wonder why Google keeps it around.
- Google Chat‘s market share will be even more embarrassing. Google buys Meebo.
- Most “Google Custom Search” projects are abandoned. The rest are run by spammers.
- Google will acquire hardware start-ups and start giving IBM/HP/Sun competition. They’re already one of the largest system producers in the world (for all the machines used to power their services).
- Microsoft and Amazon will enjoy the positive press they get now that Google starts getting flack from being in the top position.
- Digg will get worse before it gets better. Someone will write a Firefox extension for disabling Digg comments and the world will be a better place.
- Del.icio.us still won’t fix simple bugs like thinking “http://url” and “http://url/” are different websites. They will not implement an advanced search that has such simple features as exclusions of tags. Del.icio.us will still remain the number one social bookmarking site despite the fact that there are so many other alternatives. More and more of the other alternatives will fall to the way-side as they can’t get any penetration. Del.icio.us founders will continue their coke-fuelled tour of Thailand as Yahoo engineers try hopelessly to understand the code base.
- StumbleUpon video will be very popular, but they’ll have trouble monetizing it because they can’t use the same referral trick to get sponsors. They’ll finally get bought when investors realize they have more users than Del.icio.us. They won’t implement an improved dashboard for site owners to manage StumbleUpon campaigns even though it could net them a lot of money. They won’t even develop something as simple/useful as site search that could tell you all the pages on a site that have been stumbled in order of most popular.
- Reddit will stagnate under their new overlords. Users will move somewhere else. It won’t be to Netscape.
- Much like weeds, genital warts, and herpes, MySpace cannot be cured.
- Popular web start-ups will hold out for more money and not get bought. Friendster enjoys a resurgence of popularity from the “blah is the new Friendster” meme.
- Amazon will continue to release services that Google should have thought of.
- TechCrunch will keep losing writers until someone hires their nephew to pre-screen the comments and delete the most offensive ones.
- 2007 won’t be the “year of RSS“. At the end of 2007 most people still won’t understand what RSS is or how it could improve their lives. But RSS becomes even more ubiquitous from a publishing standpoint and almost all sites will offer feeds of some sorts — until they realize how few people read feeds.
- Technorati will get worse before it gets better. They will finally hire a larger support staff in the second half of the year after several A-Listers publicly complain about support wait times. It still won’t be large enough for response times sooner than one week.
- The Wisdom of Crowds is finally debunked as the most misunderstood meme ever. Mobs are dumb and bring about the lowest common denominator. Yet people continue using snappy titles that occlude their point in droves.
- All of the faults with the wisdom of crowds are applied in an argument against the open source movement. It gets linked to by Slashdot and Digg. Surprisingly, it wasn’t written by Nicolas Carr.
- Niche news aggregators really take over, but they never reach the traffic levels of the early sites like Digg. This keeps them relatively spam-free and useful to their communities.
- Nerdcore goes mainstream.
(photo by jumpcom)
Tech Predictions – Gaming and Gadgets
- 2007 will be a massive year for HD-TV sales, driven by console gaming (mostly) and HD-DVD/Bluray (some).
- Low-end HD-TVs will become affordable, and challenge the LCD monitor market.
- Bluray will go the way of UMD. HD-DVD will be declared the market winner in late 2008.
- Sony will continual its downward spiral. Remember when Betamax was the exception, not the Sony way of life?
- Microsoft XNA homebrew development for the Xbox 360 won’t take off because of the ridiculous price tag and lack of a central community, but XNA will grow a community for free PC game development — which may give XNA a second life in the future.
- Apple releases iTV. Xbox-360 owners don’t understand what the big deal is, but people still love it.
- The IRS gets a list of Second Life user accounts and starts auditing them for revenue.
- AllOfMP3 will overthrow the Russian government and causes massive repercussions with the WTO. They form a political data haven with The Pirate’s Bay.
- RIAA and MPAA continue their slow whimpering death.
- More and more countries start implementing Cleanfeed-like filters. The general populace does not notice.
- A cell phone company will develop a phone that focuses on making telephone calls (while still competing on rich features). They make a killing.
- Cell phone service providers create a service package that includes YouTube videos and streaming Internet radio. Satellite radio shows a corresponding decline in uptake.
- A North American cell phone service provider will have deep market penetration by finally offering affordable data rate plans. The cartels will kill them.
- Some company will develop a toaster with an iPod dock that plays a song when your toast is done.
- Fewer and fewer devices have podcasting support out of the box when a research study shows the real numbers behind podcasting and videocasting.
(photo by nj dodge)
- Blogger will strip the meta-redirect tag because it is abused by spammers.
- A spammer will be murdered in his home once his identity is published on the Internet.
- Someone will start a *hugely* popular vlog that focuses on teenagers doing things that will haunt them for the rest of their lives. The commenters will be rabid flamers and quite often post the identities of the people in the videos. This will hit mainstream media once someone commits suicide and/or goes on a killing spree over it.
- More people will get fired for blogging, but even more people will get hired for blogging.
- The disconnect in audience size between A-Listers and B-Listers grows and grows.
- Typepad bloggers wonder why they stop receiving comments after Typepad finally removes the last barrier to their captcha scheme being completely unreadable. In an act of irony, someone writes a browser extension for decoding Typepad captcha.
- There will still be no one in the Technorati top 5000 who uses Vox as a blogging platform; however it will have taken a huge market share of the strictly “personal” bloggers. Blogger will still have huge market share because of the Google influence. Livejournal will be even further on the decline.
- A new start-up will become prominent whose sole focus is developing a better metric for comparing blog readership so that the various blogging revenue networks can more accurately determine pay rates.
- Someone will do a very in-depth analysis of the correlation between Technorati ranking and actual readership numbers. It will show that it doesn’t scale well as a metric of readership beyond the top 100. People will still obsess about their Technorati ranking.
- The majority of bloggers still won’t know (or care) about what Technorati is.
- There will be a controversial story about (real, Entertainment Tonight) celebrity bloggers getting into an online flame war. It will be revealed later to have been a publicity stunt.
- There will be even more controversy surrounding Edelmen PR firm (that make the Wal-Mart / Vista laptop stories seem tame). There will be a coalition of bloggers who think they should be tarred and feathered. It won’t merit more than a one paragraph blurb in any major news source, because the non-blogging world doesn’t care.
- Someone will release a research paper about how blogging affects personal relationships. It will become very popular in the blogsphere, but few people will pay it heed.
- Someone will write a WordPress plug-in to automatically disable comments if the referrer is Digg or Slashdot.
- A massively popular WordPress plug-in will be revealed to have a backdoor for installing spammer links.
- One of the blogging search engines will close up shop.
- Two more people will join Mark and Lloyd in doing WordPress.com support.
- WordPress.com will eventually make the CSS customization upgrade $5 or less when they realize that it is *impossible* to deal with all of the bugs in the provided themes. They will then focus on installing more Sandbox-like themes that have good bones.
- Pure theme designers will embrace CSS skinning while those who create themes purely for SEO will continue making themes just so they can embed links in the footer.
- WordPress.com will offer a paid upgrade where you can keep your wordpress.com domain name but move to your own host. These sites won’t show up on the WordPress.com dashboard.
- WordPress.com will offer a cheaper VIP hosting package where you have your own domain name, you can install your own theme, and they take a cut of the ad revenue. But these sites won’t show up on the WordPress.com dashboard, or have an associated *.wordpress.com domain.
- WordPress.com will temporary allow AdSense and affiliates, but then turn it off because of the deluge of spammers.
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