The Dirge of iPod
There’s an interesting prediction that 2006 is the year that the iPod will die. I have a Nokia 6682 (2005 release, review starts here) with half a gig of memory. While I have used it for listening to music, it hasn’t come close to replacing my 4th generation 40 GB iPod.
Here are the reasons:
- Cellphone music transfers use USB 1.1, so take an unbearably long time.
- I don’t have an MMC card reader on my “MP3″ computer.
- The Nokia MP3 player chokes on a lot of MP3 files (SymbianOggPlay fixes this)
- I may always have my phone on me, but I don’t always have my ear-buds with me, and old ladies throw loose change and lint-covered hard candies at me if I try to use the loudspeaker.
We’re still in an age where the best convergent device is a cellphone, a Nano, and a digital camera tied together with a piece of duct-tape.
After the break, why I think the iPod will die.
I use my phone for playing Su Doku, checking movie times and occasionally listening to music — but it’s still not even close to replacing my main gadgets. I don’t disagree that the iPod craze is coming to an end, I might consider diversifying more if I worked at a company whose sole business model is iPod accessories. What I strongly disagree with is the timeline. I think the year is more like 2008 when we’ll start to notice this.
Here are the reasons why I think the iPod will die (aka “finally lose a significant portion of market-share”):
- If my cellphone can play music and I always have my cellphone with me, what else do I need?
- Cellphone ear buds with a built-in headset (like the ones Nokia produces) are simply the best thing about having a cellphone MP3 player. Calls automatically interrupt your music, you press a button on the headset and talk, press again to end call and restart the music. Genius.
- Only idiots would pay $10-$14 for 640×480 digital video downloads.
- But, I didn’t think they’d be able to sell music videos online and apparently they have for $1-$2 a piece. Suddenly all the “music videos on YouTube” contraversy makes sense.
- The iTunes Movie Store will be very popular, but anyone who downloads from it should have mandatory sterilization. Unfortunately, they’ve already procreated.
- Wi-fi is a natural extension of how people want to use a music player.
- This is the only reason why Microsoft’s Zune will gain market-share.
- Much like blue-jacking, there will be an inordinate amount of people “pushing” their podcasts to random people on the bus.
- Streaming radio will be the death of MP3.
- I’ve been using last.fm exclusively for a few months and it’s so much more natural to how I want to listen to music. I want to quickly choose genres/artists I’m interested in at that moment and then have it auto-select what it thinks I want to hear next — continually improving as I love/hate songs.
- No one tags their friggin’ MP3s properly, making managing a large MP3 collection more work than it’s worth.
- Backing up your MP3 collection to CD/DVD sounds smart, but it takes on average 10 minutes a CD to recover the data to the computer. I had a hard drive crash in 2000 and I *still* haven’t restored my 200 GB of MP3 back-ups.
Of course, this is all pretty moot since the iPhone is around the corner.